1 Game Profile

1.1 Estimated Outcomes on BGG

This table displays the selected game’s current values on four BGG outcomes (UsersRated, Average, GeekRating, Weight) along with my predictive model(s) estimated values for where these games are likely to end up.

Published	ID	Name	Type	UserRatings	Average	GeekRating	Weight
2021	340040	Neoville	Current	94	6.55	5.55	1.50
			Estimated	300	7.09	5.73	2.18

To see more information about the game on boardgamegeek, click on the game’s ID or Name to go straight to the game’s profile page.

1.2 Game Description

Description
Neoville is looking for architects to build a city that is a combination of human habitation and the natural world. Are you up to the challenge? Position tiles strategically to build skyscrapers and utilities in your 4×4 city. Skyscrapers will be worth harmony points at the end of the game based on their value and district size. Utilities will be worth harmony points when their position in the city fits their own requirements. However, skyscrapers or utilities that do not meet their requirements will count as negative points! Who will design the most harmonious city with nature? —description from the publisher

1.3 Game Information

Information on the game’s designers, artists, families, mechanics and categories from BGG.

For the full profile of the selected game, click on the links in the table or go to https://boardgamegeek.com/boardgame/340040

1.4 Explaining Predictions

For each of the predictions above, I used models that were trained on historical boardgamegeek data in order to predict the selected game. How did the model(s) arrive at their predictions? The following plot displays Shapley values to indicate what features were most influential for the model’s predictions. Anything in blue increased the model’s predictions, anything in red decreased the model’s predictions.

2 Finding Similar Games

What games are similar to Neoville? I compare the selected game to every other game on boardgamegeek based on its mechanics, playing time, complexity, and game type. The tables below display the games which had the most similar data to Neoville. The reported similarity is the cosine similarity between the selected game and all other games published before 2021.

This similarity score ranges from -1 to 1, where similarity of 1 indicates that games are exactly identical (a game will have a score of 1 with itself).

Note: This analysis does not look at a game’s ratings on BGG, publisher, artist, or designer - it focuses on finding similar games based on how they play, not how they are rated or by their theme.

2.1 Most Similar Games

The table below displays games with the most similar data to Neoville. Click on a game’s ID or Name to go straight to its profile on boardgamegeek.

Rank	Published	ID	Name	Similarity	GeekRating	Average	Weight	UserRatings
--	2021	340040	Neoville	1.00	5.55	6.55	2.18	94
1	2019	294230	Remember Our Trip	0.97	5.89	7.47	2.15	429
2	2020	317299	Loco Momo	0.95	5.64	6.44	1.22	321
3	2013	136280	La Boca	0.94	6.29	6.98	1.37	1,992
4	2018	246639	Patchwork Express	0.93	5.96	7.00	1.56	791
5	2014	163412	Patchwork	0.92	7.52	7.63	1.62	54,613
6	2020	318183	Prehistories	0.92	5.71	7.10	1.78	281
7	2019	276498	Paris: La Cité de la Lumière	0.90	6.63	7.41	2.04	2,829
8	2020	295948	Aqualin	0.90	5.99	7.03	1.57	872
9	2020	301002	Dream Runners	0.89	5.60	7.11	1.60	118
10	2004	9963	Santorini	0.88	5.79	7.29	2.36	358
11	2016	200853	Habitats	0.87	6.30	7.34	2.29	1,346
12	1987	2858	Mathable	0.85	5.49	5.53	2.17	76
13	1883	2389	Othello	0.84	5.94	6.11	2.08	7,601
14	2005	19841	Pentago	0.84	6.05	6.38	1.84	3,298
15	2007	27172	Ponte del Diavolo	0.84	5.87	6.47	2.36	1,141
16	1992	2125	Amazons	0.84	5.73	7.17	2.89	303
17	2005	16395	Blokus Duo	0.83	6.49	6.84	1.69	5,365
18	2007	31358	Cranium Triple Triumph	0.82	5.51	5.82	1.17	58
19	-1300	11901	Tic-Tac-Toe	0.82	3.58	2.70	1.19	3,509
20	1987	2731	Upthrust	0.82	5.51	6.04	1.33	33
21	2020	289081	The Grand Carnival	0.82	6.03	7.63	2.20	581
22	1993	300	Tutankhamen	0.82	5.75	6.11	1.58	1,293
23	2008	39406	Talat	0.81	5.58	6.27	2.00	215
24	2020	293556	Gloomy Graves	0.81	5.59	6.75	1.71	147
25	1987	3313	Traverse	0.81	5.55	5.96	1.97	272

Click on the ID or Name for any game to go its profile page on boardgamegeek.

2.2 Most Similar, Highly Rated Games

What games are similar to Neoville while also being highly rated by the boardgamegeek community? In this table I multiply every neighboring game’s similarity score by its GeekRating. The resulting score is an attempt to balance these two quantities.

Rank	Published	ID	Name	Score	Similarity	GeekRating	Average	Weight	UserRatings
--	2021	340040	Neoville	5.55	1.00	5.55	6.55	2.18	94
1	2014	163412	Patchwork	6.94	0.92	7.52	7.63	1.62	54,613
2	2019	276498	Paris: La Cité de la Lumière	5.97	0.90	6.63	7.41	2.04	2,829
3	2013	136280	La Boca	5.94	0.94	6.29	6.98	1.37	1,992
4	2019	294230	Remember Our Trip	5.70	0.97	5.89	7.47	2.15	429
5	2014	160477	Onitama	5.62	0.78	7.18	7.38	1.68	18,107
6	2018	246639	Patchwork Express	5.57	0.93	5.96	7.00	1.56	791
7	2016	200853	Habitats	5.49	0.87	6.30	7.34	2.29	1,346
8	1475	171	Chess	5.46	0.78	6.97	7.16	3.68	31,693
9	2005	16395	Blokus Duo	5.41	0.83	6.49	6.84	1.69	5,365
10	2020	317299	Loco Momo	5.38	0.95	5.64	6.44	1.22	321
11	2020	295948	Aqualin	5.38	0.90	5.99	7.03	1.57	872
12	2000	2655	Hive	5.31	0.74	7.19	7.32	2.32	32,572
13	2020	318183	Prehistories	5.25	0.92	5.71	7.10	1.78	281
14	2001	1261	Medina	5.22	0.81	6.47	7.02	2.79	3,078
15	2005	19841	Pentago	5.08	0.84	6.05	6.38	1.84	3,298
16	2004	9963	Santorini	5.08	0.88	5.79	7.29	2.36	358
17	1997	624	Quoridor	5.07	0.79	6.38	6.66	1.86	7,066
18	1883	2389	Othello	5.00	0.84	5.94	6.11	2.08	7,601
19	2019	267319	Roam	5.00	0.76	6.61	7.39	1.80	2,639
20	2019	272380	SHŌBU	5.00	0.79	6.35	7.58	1.81	1,244
21	2002	2955	Mexica	5.00	0.74	6.79	7.24	2.70	5,381
22	2014	167270	Medina (Second Edition)	4.97	0.78	6.39	7.21	2.36	1,902
23	2020	301002	Dream Runners	4.96	0.89	5.60	7.11	1.60	118
24	2020	289081	The Grand Carnival	4.94	0.82	6.03	7.63	2.20	581
25	2017	197405	Tak	4.93	0.74	6.63	7.62	2.48	2,389

2.3 Why Are Games Considered Similar?

I first ran a dimension reduction method (PCA) to identify the main points of variation for games on BGG. The first 25 components explained roughly 50% of the overall variation in the dataset, so I computed the cosine similarity between every game’s score on these 25 components.

2.3.1 Plotting All Games

The following plot shows every game on BGG plotted on the first two principal components of variation. I then highlight where the selected game and its nearest neighbors fall on these first two components.

2.3.2 Game Profiles

Similarity scores are based on 25 principal components - the next table displays the selected game and its neighbors profiles on each of these components.

2.3.3 Examining Components

What are these components? The following plot shows which features contribute the most to each component.

Published	ID	Name	Publisher(s)	Designer(s)	Artist(s)	Categories	Families	Mechanics
2021	340040	Neoville	Blue Orange Games	Phil Walker-Harding	Ingenious Studios	City Building	Theme: Construction	Pattern Building
			Blue Orange (EU)			Environmental	Theme: Ecology	Square Grid
			HCM Kinzel			Science Fiction		Tile Placement
			Lucky Duck Games
			Maldito Games

Individual Game Analysis